Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals 5/28/2013

The Washington Nationals are 14-11 at home this season and the Baltimore Orioles are 17-11 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Nationals\' starter Nate Karns is forecasted to have a better game than Orioles\' starter Kevin Gausman. Nate Karns has a 32% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Kevin Gausman has a 25% chance of a QS. If Nate Karns has a quality start the Nationals has a 72% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.1 and he has a 12% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Nationals win 59%. In Kevin Gausman quality starts the Orioles win 65%. He has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 65% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Washington Nationals is Bryce Harper who averaged 2.44 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Nationals have a 59% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Chris Davis who averaged 2.63 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 46% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 64% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore OriolesRECORDWashington NationalsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road17-11, 61% 854Record at Home14-11, 56% -117Baltimore Orioles
VS Washington Nationals1-0, 100% 133VS Baltimore Orioles0-1, 0% -100Baltimore Orioles
vs Team .500 or Better13-10, 57% 489vs Team Under .50015-10, 60% -81Baltimore Orioles
Record as Road Favorite3-4, 43% -138Record as Home Underdog3-1, 75% 215Washington Nationals
When Kevin Gausman Starts0-1, 0% -100When Nate Karns Starts0-0 No GamesWashington Nationals

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore OriolesRECORDWashington NationalsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road9-7, 56% 282Record at Home5-5, 50% -86Baltimore Orioles
VS Washington Nationals1-0, 100% 133VS Baltimore Orioles0-1, 0% -100Baltimore Orioles
vs Team Under .5006-4, 60% 158vs Team Under .5002-5, 29% -345Baltimore Orioles
Record as Road Favorite3-4, 43% -138Record as Home Underdog2-0, 100% 219Washington Nationals
When Kevin Gausman Starts0-1, 0% -100When Nate Karns Starts0-0 No GamesWashington Nationals

OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Over

Baltimore OriolesRECORDWashington NationalsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD18-9, 67% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME12-12, 50% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS12-3, 80% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-3, 67% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON32-52, 38% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON43-40, 52% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Kevin Gausman STARTS1-0, 100% OverOVER-UNDER IN Nate Karns STARTS0-0 No GamesN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 16-12, 57% +230 Washington Nationals Home Games: 10-15, 40% -644 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 8-8, 50% -342 Washington Nationals Home Games: 4-6, 40% -240

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 15-13, 54% +120 Washington Nationals Home Games: 13-12, 52% -332 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 8-8, 50% -47 Washington Nationals Home Games: 4-6, 40% -301

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 8-14, 36% -740 Washington Nationals Home Games: 8-12, 40% -520 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 2-11, 15% -1010 Washington Nationals Home Games: 3-6, 33% -360

Click here to see AccuScore's pick for this game

Source: http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/mlb/5-28-2013/baltimore-orioles-washington-769?ref=acc

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